new survey data....no leads
I actually remember doing one of these polls way back in April or May.
S.
Poll challenges notions of who is frontrunner in Liberal leadership race
(Liberal-Leadership-Po)
Source: The Canadian Press
Sep 7, 2006 15:48
OTTAWA (CP) _ A new poll is challenging the notion that international
academic and author Michael Ignatieff is the front-runner in the Liberal
leadership race, suggesting instead that the top five candidates are
virtually running neck and neck.
The Decima survey says there is little difference between how each of the
five top candidates are faring with the public. The so-called potential
voter pool _ a combination of people who say they would vote Liberal,
consider it, or aren't sure _ sits at between 56 per cent and
53 per cent for all candidates.
They include Ignatieff, former cabinet ministers Stephane Dion and Scott
Brison, former Ontario cabinet minister Gerard Kennedy and former Ontario
premier Bob Rae.
``Mr. Ignatieff, despite being the perceived front-runner and having
considerable media attention, has not been able to put real distance between
himself and the others, when it comes to voter impressions,''
Decima's Bruce Anderson said in a release.
When voters who aren't sure are taken out of the mix, former Ontario premier
Bob Rae inches ahead of the others: 26 per cent of respondents said they
would vote Liberal or consider voting Liberal if Rae were at the party's
helm, compared with 23 per cent for former cabinet minister Stephane Dion
and 21 per cent for Ignatieff.
In Ontario, Rae has an even wider lead over the perceived front-runner, with
11 per cent more voters saying they would vote Liberal or consider voting
Liberal if he were leader than if Ignatieff won.
The poll was conducted between Aug. 31 and Sept.4 by telephone. The results
are based on a sample of just over 1,000 adult Canadians and are considered
accurate to within plus or minus 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
posted by Sarah Wong at 10:17 AM
7 Comments:
I think this still just reflects name recognition more than anything else.
Polls are of course of limited value generally because they are merely a snapshot in time and this poll interviews all Canadians, including non-Liberals. What is generally more important is the trend. So it is difficult to say what it means that the Tories are at 35% (give or take) at the polls but more significant to note that they are at the same popularity level as they were on January 23 and even much more significant to note that they were up at 40% and are trending down.
A similar poll to this one was taken in the spring and it showed Ignatieff - who was being called the frontrunner even then - to be way behind, fourth if I recall and a poor showing in Quebec. So he has actually shown the most growth in this poll. But I personally don't think even that makes much difference because all that means is that over the summer more Canadians have read about him and recognize his name.
That Bob Rae does the best in Ontario and Quebec underscores even more the name recognition. Someone should try to find those old polls to compare how he has trended after a summer long campaign by him and the other candidates.
Ted
One swallow doth not a summer make ....
Cerberus is to be commended for his swift damage control comments in this latest poll. Methinks there is more to it than just name recognition. However, no doubt there will soon be other polls, as the other polling agencies wake up to the fact that people are interested in the next Liberal leader.
I would give odds of five to one that the next 3 polls show Rae ahead of Ignatieff amongst voters generally, amongst Liberals and amongst Dippers.
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This proves that Dion has the best momentum in the race. In the actual details on the poll, his numbers went up quite a bit in Quebec, and fully 1/3 of Bloc supporters would consider voting Liberal with Dion as leader. His support in Quebec went up 9%.
So, Rae isn't hated in Ontario, and Dion isn't hated in Quebec, and Ignatieff is a yawn.
This means that we are going to have a real race.
Yippeee!
Good to see another Brison supporter.
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